MAP: Predict when fall foliage will be at its finest in your area

Posted On Thu, September 20, 2018 By

Posted On Thu, September 20, 2018 By In Events, Features, maps

Whether you’re good and ready for sweater weather or you’re sorry to see summer go, there’s no avoiding the fact that fall is on the way. One way to savor the changing seasons is to enjoy the majestic hues of autumn foliage. If you’re hoping to catch the changing season at its peak, there’s no better tool to plan your leaf-peeping strategy than SmokyMountains.com‘s Fall Foliage Prediction Map. This interactive infograph will tell you when and where foliage is expected to appear, and when it will reach its peak, in your area.


To create the map, a complex algorithm was developed that carefully analyzes several million data points and outputs approximately 50,000 predictive data pieces. This data then enables the program to forecast county-by-county the precise moment when “fall peak” will occur.

Some of the data points processed by the algorithm include National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) historical temperatures, NOAA historical precipitation, NOAA forecast temperatures, NOAA forecast precipitation, historical leaf peak trends, and peak observation trends

“Although simply entering data based on rainfall, temperature data, elevations, and other data points into a model will never be 100 percent accurate, this combined with our proprietary, historical data drives our model to become more accurate each year,” Wes Melton, the map’s creator, told 6sqft. “However, unexpected rainfall that falls well outside of expected trends can always change the peak foliage dates and brilliance.”

A new feature the folks at SmokyMountains.com are particularly proud of this year: A secondary graphic adds regional and state data related to temperature variations based on data supplied by the NOAA. Now leaf map users can easily visualize the impact of regional precipitation on peak fall dates.

The map can forecast county-by-county the precise moment when fall peak will occur and covers an 11-week period between August 27 and November 12.

[Via SmokyMountains.com]

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