For New York home buyers, a lot can change in a year. A neighborhood that was considered affordable can all of a sudden become out of reach, whether it be from new developments like a subway or good old fashioned gentrification. For this reason, Fast Forward Labs created an interactive map that predicts the price of real estate in 2018. As Google Maps Mania explains, “The map allows you to input a housing budget and see how likely it is that you will be able to afford to buy a property in different New York neighborhoods during different future time periods.”
real estate trends
In November, 6sqft shared an analysis from RentCafe that showed the number of high-income renters in NYC has tripled over the last decade, with the number of renter households earning more than $150,000 annually increasing by 217 percent between 2005 and 2015, from 551,000 to 1.75 million. Now, DNAinfo has asked the site to break the data down further by neighborhood, and what it tells us is that Eastchester and Baychester in the Bronx and East Elmhurst and Jackson Heights in Queens saw the largest increase in wealthy renters.
CityRealty spoke with New York City real estate experts—everyone from developers to architects to contractors to brokers—on their predictions for the upcoming year in the city’s ever-changing real estate market. From the presidential election of real estate magnate Donald Trump to the likely return of 421A tax incentives, 2017 promises big changes ahead. And yes, renters can look forward to more apartment concessions from landlords coming next year.
In the past year or so, there has been no shortage of talk about inventory glut, flat rental prices and bursting bubbles; Now, Slate blogger Henry Grabar has rustled up some numbers and real-life examples to go with the chatter, and we’re guessing they weren’t too hard to find. According to Grabar, a vacancy rate at its highest since 2009 (with a staggering amount of inventory in the pipeline), and the percentage of rental price chops at a record 42 percent in October point to an impending renter’s market of comparatively epic proportions.
6sqft has previously shared data that it only makes sense to buy a home in New York City after having lived here for 18.2 years, longer than anywhere else in the nation by a long shot. When and if that time comes, Manhattanities are looking to drop an average of $500,000 for a down payment, according to a new report from Property Shark. To put this figure into perspective, the average price nationwide to buy an entire home is $300,000. And in the Manhattan luxury market, the median down payment is a whopping $3.15 million, which might explain why, according to 2014 census data, only 32% of New Yorkers owned their homes.
Despite chatter about the luxury market slowing down, 2016 has seen Manhattan real estate prices continue to climb and set records. The average sales price for an apartment (including both co-ops and condos) was $2.2 million, topping the $1.9 million record set last year, according to CityRealty’s newly released Year-End Manhattan Market Report. This is a whopping 91 percent increase from 2006. And things heat up even more in the new development sector, where 1,800 units sold for a projected total of $8.9 billion, a huge jump from last year’s $5.4 billion for $1,464 units.
432 Park Avenue may be the tallest residential building in the western hemisphere and home to the most expensive apartment closing this year, but throughout 2016, the tower’s ultra-luxury condos were selling at an average discount of 10 percent, according to an analysis by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. for Bloomberg. And a recent transaction saw an even greater price cut; Lewis Sanders, founder and CEO of Sanders Capital and former CEO of AllianceBernstein, bought an 88th floor penthouse for $60.9 million, 20 percent less than its $76.5 asking price.
6sqft’s ongoing series Apartment Living 101 is aimed at helping New Yorkers navigate the challenges of creating a happy home in the big city. This week, now that the city is in high renting season, we’ve researched the best resources for finding a no-fee apartment.
More than half of New Yorkers spend 30 percent or more of their income on rent. Tack on a broker’s fee that could be as high as 15 percent of an apartment’s annual rent, and that burden becomes even worse. Thankfully, there are more and more resources popping up to find no-fee rentals. Aside from the go-to listing aggregators, there’s now roommate-share options, lease break sites, artist-centric search engines, and good old fashioned networking. 6sqft has put together our 12 favorite options, along with the basics of each so you can figure out what will work best for you and how to prioritize your search.
In October, city officials unveiled plans to rezone a large swath of East Harlem. The major thrust of the rezoning initiative is to bring more high-rise buildings to a corridor running several blocks along Park, Second, and Third avenues. By building up, city officials hope the neighborhood will increase its housing stock, including its affordable housing stock. In the long term, the proposed rezoning will also radically reshape the East Harlem’s appearance and street life, turning it from a mostly low-rise to high-rise neighborhood. What is about to happen to East Harlem, however, is a familiar story. Since 1916, when New York passed its first zoning resolution, the city has been profoundly shaped by zoning regulations.
Images via Extell and Google Maps
The construction of Extell’s high-rise condo development at the foot of the Manhattan Bridge is now well underway. When complete, 250 South Street (formerly 227 Cherry Street) will rise more than 80 stories above the East River and be home to just under 800 units, but that’s not all. As the Extell building goes up, the surrounding area is also attracting growing attention from other developers. In July, JDS Development announced plans for a rental development just next door at 247 South Street. Given the scope of the Extell development and its neighboring rental development on South Street, thousands of new residents are expected to arrive in the Cherry Street neighborhood between now and 2020. Of course, there are many neighbors who arrived first.
“The building is beautiful, the service is impeccable,” Marjorie Jacobs, a resident of the Upper West Side complex currently known as Trump Place told Bloomberg in October, “But the name is very embarrassing.” An outcry by similarly-minded residents and a petition have culminated in the decision to remove the president-elect’s name from the buildings and instead name them according to their street addresses at 140, 160 and 180 Riverside Boulevard, reports Crains.
October brought a significant spike in home mortgage foreclosure rates, according to The New York Post, with more than 1,100 homes heading into foreclosure. That number represents a 32 percent increase from the previous month and a 37 percent increase from one year ago, with 400 new cases in Queens (nearly twice as many as a year ago). 365 cases were recorded in Brooklyn, a 20 percent increase, with the state overall seeing a 15 percent increase since September and 10 percent year over year, according research by Attom Data Solutions.
Image by __shih_cc via Instagram
Since Donald Trump announced his run for office, Trump Tower, where the President-elect both lives and keeps his political headquarters, has been a hotspot for protestors. While in the past few months, inconveniences haven’t escalated far beyond anti-Trumpers stopping by to give the building the finger, after the 2016 election results were announced, it’s become veritable zoo outside the 5th Avenue tower as thousands have convened to denounce (and to be sure, support) a Trump presidency. The situation has become a major disruption for residents of the luxury skyscraper who are now annoyed with the crowds. As The Post so fittingly writes, “It’s not so easy being a member of the 1 percent if you live at Trump Tower.”
The city’s real estate industry isn’t too worried about a Donald Trump presidency. Real estate insiders feel that the man whose family’s fortune was made in the industry and padded by its favorable tax breaks, foreign investments and still-rising market will be unlikely to bite the hand that has fed it so well, Crains reports.
In the last decade, with the recession and an unstable housing market, even those with stable incomes have become wary of investing in a new home. This turn towards renting is reflected in the increase among wealthy households, according to an analysis from RentCafe. The data shows that from 2005 to 2015, the number of renter households who earn more than $150,000 a year increased by 217 percent, from 551,000 to 1.75 million. This figure outpaces the number of homeowner households in the same income bracket, which increased only 82 percent.
Even after countless big ticket closings at blockbuster buildings like 432 Park Avenue and The Greenwich Lane, the long-admired Robert A.M. Stern-designed, Zeckendorf-developed 15 Central Park West (15 CPW) remains king. According to CityRealty’s latest CR100 report—an index comprised of the top 100 condominium buildings in Manhattan—units in 15 CPW sold on average for $6,735 per square foot over 12 months, a number that is impressively higher than the index average of $2,824. Tribeca’s Herzog & de Meuron-designed “Jenga tower,” 56 Leonard also made its debut on the latest CR100, clocking an average price per square foot of $2,657.
On this past January 1, the 421-a tax abatement program expired after 44 years in existence. Any new construction permitted before January will still benefit from the program, but many want to know what the expiration of this program mean for new construction? And how will the projects still under the 421-a umbrella use their reduced tax status to promote their buildings? While some experts feel that shutting down the abatement was an action long overdue, many others believe that the program’s end has prompted “a self-created recession.”
Now that we’re nearer to the election, and since the negative press surrounding all things Donald Trump has come to a head, things are starting to crumble for his real estate empire. Not only did his personal hotel brand decide to drop his moniker, but a group of Trump Place tenants even went so far as to petition their board to remove his name from their buildings. A report out today in the Times takes a closer look at how sales are declining, and data from CityRealty confirms that from 2015 to 2016, there was a 17 percent decrease in the number of sales at Trump condos.
Elite international schools are attracting buyers to new developments on the Upper East Side and Nomad, Wed, October 26, 2016
Families looking to buy apartments in the Big Apple often have a standard list of demands: safe area, family-friendly neighborhood, and space to accommodate their children. But perhaps most important is the desire to be close to a top school. Though not a new idea, this trend appears to be growing among international buyers who are actively seeking homes close to international private schools, hoping to preserve their native language and culture within their children’s upbringing. One area where new apartment buildings are benefitting from this trend is the Upper East Side, specifically in Lenox Hill, which is host to Lycée Francais de New York and La Scuola d’Italia. And downtown in Nomad, the Ecole Internationale de New York and the United Nations International School are having a similar effect.
Fifth Avenue is known around the world as the high-end shopping address, but rising rents are leading to an increase in vacant space along the retail corridor. According to data from Cushman & Wakefield reported by Crain’s, the availability rate spiked to 15.9 percent in the third quarter of this year, up 10 percent from the same time last year. On the stretch that has the world’s highest rents, from 49th to 60th streets, retail space is listed at an average of $3,213 per square foot, up from $2,075 in 2011. To put this in perspective, current rents in Times Square are $2,104 per square foot after tripling over the past four years.